Archive for March, 2008

The FTSE had been down about 100 points at one stage today, but at the close it was actually up 9.2 points at 5,702.1, about 13 points off its high.  The FTSE 250 closed up 19.3 points to close at 9,980.6.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up about 44 points at 12,260, the S&P 500 up nearly 4 points at 1,320 and the Nasdaq was up 10 points at 2,271.    Better than expected Purchasing Managers Index numbers as well as details of a US government plan to overhaul the way Wall Street is regulated gave some confidence to the markets.

Back here in London, the mining stocks had a good day as metal prices were up again.  Anto closed up 25.5p at 701 on the back of a broker upgrade to ‘hold’ from ’sell’ as it looks like metals will continue on the up. Kazakhmys was 40p up on the day to closed at 1,599, Rio closed up 66p at 5,233, and BHP closed up 19p at 1,495.

Oil was still above US$105 bbl, mainly due to concerns on goings on in Iraq, so the oil majors were up.  BP closed up 9p at 512p, Cairn Energy up 32p at 2,834 after a double broker confidence vote and target raise, and RD Shell closed up 37p at 1,696 after receiving an upgrade by SG Securities to ‘buy’.

Friends Provident closed up 3.5p at 123.6 after confriming it had rejected US private equity group JC Flowers’ takeover offer saying it was way under value. It was said that JC Flowers bid 175p a share back in January.

After some good news on drug trials with its hypertension product Crestor, AstraZeneca closed up 36p at 1,884 on the day. The pharma giant said it has stopped the Jupiter clinical trial for Crestor early after the independent data monitoring board overseeing the trial said there was “unequivocal evidence” of a reduction in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients treated with the drug.

On to the down side, British Airways closed down nearly 6p at 234.25p after a   Goldman Sachs change of stance from ‘buy’ to ’sell’, and added a price target of 2-quid a share, down from 330p.  The broker blamed earnings for the next two years will be less due to the price of the black stuff, which BA needs at least US$2 bln worth a year, and also this farce at Terminal 5  that could cost anything up to £50m, it is said.  About 500 T5 flights will have been cancelled by the end of the week.

ITV was also down after a downgrade by UBS citing worries on advertising revenue.  The lack of Euro 2008 interest (thank you MacLaren) will affect revenues, for one thing.  UBS gave a target of 60p, down from 70p.  ITV closed down 4.6p at 63.3p.

Vodafone closed down 6.1p at 150.9 after a double-downgrade by Morgan Stanley, who went from ‘overweight’ to ‘underweight’, and gave a 170p target, down 20%, after it reviewed the telecoms sector.

Tesco closed down 11.25p at 379p on news that the supermarket group will mark time for the moment on its US explansion plans.  Standing still for 3 months, in fact, as it gets to grips with the first 59 stores its opened over there.

The FTSE was down about 85 points after an hour at 5,608, following on from the US falling again on Friday.

Over the pond on Friday, the DJI closed down 86.06 points at 12,216.40, whilst the S&P500 close down 10.54 at 1,315.22, and the Nasdaq down 19.65 points at 2,261.18.  A profit warning from retail giant JC Penny didn’t help.

Today in the Far East the Nikkei 225 closed down 344.67 points at 12,475.8, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng was down about 445 points at 22,840 by lunchtime chow time.

Back here in London, there were some broker downgrades, which caused some selling in a few blue chips.  British Airways was down 9p at 231p after Goldman Sachs reversed its opinion from a ‘buy’ to a ’sell’, and gave the airline a 2-quid target, down from 330p. The broker cited the rising cost of oil as thge reason earniungs will be lower over the next couple of years.  What with the farce at the new Terminal 5, it hasn’t been a good week for the airline.

ITV was down over 4p at 63.8p after a UBS downgrade to ’sell’ from ‘neutral’, and a 60p target, down from 70p.

Vodafone was off an unusal 7.5p at 149.5 after Morgan Stanley downgraded to ‘underweight’ from ‘overweight’, and lowered its target to 170p after it had reviewed the telecoms sector in general.  Morgan Stanley also raised its rating for BT Group to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’ in the sector review, but this didn’t help the price this morning, down 3p to 213p.

Supermarket chain Tesco was doewn 16p to 374p this morning on news that its US expansion program is on hold for 3 months. The marketing director for Tesco’s US Fresh & Easy business, Simon Uwins, said the company will take a 3-month break from opening new sites to ‘kick the tyres’ and ’smooth out the wrinkles’ following the opening of its first 59 stores.

Friends Provident was up 4.4p to 124.6 after confirming it had rejected JC Flowers 150p a share bid saying it grossly undervalued the business.  The 150p bid was 25p under its last bid of 175p in January.

AstraZenecawas up 26p at 1,876 after good news on its new hypertension drug, Crestor, which has flown through trials.

Good morning

I hope you are all well and had an enjoyable weekend.

GBPUSD was the mover this am with a pullback through 1.9900 for a solid start to the week… Take a look at the 60min chart and the entry point on the 15min chart as it breaks the support line…

As expected, the FTSE closed down 24.6 points today at 5,692.9, whilst the FTSE 250 was down 20.7 points at 9,961.3 on the day.  The FTSE had been 50 points higher during the day, but the strength fell off.  Not a bad week, though, especially aftre the recent few weeks, as the FTSE is up about 198 points on the week.

Over the pond, by the time London closed The DJI was up about 24 points at 12,326, whilst the S&P500 was up 3 points at 1,328.9 and the Nasdaq up 6 points at 2,287. The US heard that cosnsumer spending was up slightly, 0.1% last month. It had said spending was down over there, but personal income was up, with 0.5% rise in Febraury. However, a profit warning from JC Penney Co caused some concern.

Back here in London, and carrying on from this morning, it was the housebuilders under pressure. Persimmons closed down 40p at 749.5p after Nationwide’s house price survey said house prices fell again for the 5th consecutive month in March, and forecasted that it would continue to fall. Peers were off too, with Barratts was down over 27p at just shy of 411p after a broker downgrade as Panmure Gordon gave a downgrade to ’sell’ from ‘hold’, and Redrow down nearly 2p at just shy of 313p, Bellway down 11p at 874 and Taylor Wimpey down 1.25p at just shy of 186p.

Land was down too, with Land Securities closing down 39p at 1,497, British Land down 31.5p at 902.5, and Liberty Intnl down 22p at 955p after UBS reiterated its ‘neutral’ stance and cut its target to 10-quid.

Also carrying on from this morning, and back to the Terminal 5 fiasco, British Airways ended the day down over 7p at 240p as investors showed concenrs on the ongoing debacle at the airline’s new home. Another 34 flights were cancelled today, with other airlines enjoying the extra passengers.

The banks were also down, with the rumours that Lehman Brothers were feeling it all too causing investors to be cautious here.  Lloyds TSB was down over 8p at 451.25 and HBOS down 17.5p at 540p.

Miners were stronger as commodities were up. Vedanta was up 67p t 2,133, Anto up 18p at 675.5p, and Anglo up 29p at 3,020.

Oil was down, though, causing BP to close down 9p at 503p and Tullow Oil down to 648, off 12.5p on the day.

Enterprise Inns continued up today, closing nearly 46p to the good at just shy of 410p after a decent trading update.  As we said this morning, broker rating were changed to ‘buy’, with comments that the news could mean another £1 to £1.50 a share.  Peers were also up, with Punch Taverns up 35.5p at 554 after pulling out of its merger hopes with Mitchells & Butlers, who closed up 13p at 342.5p.  Despite the FT saying other private equity groups had pulled out of the bid running too, it seems there are still one or two interests.

The FTSE was fairly flat this morning, and we expect a slow end to the week.  The FTSE was up 6.5points at 5,724 after its first hour of trading, whilst the FTSE 250 was down 24 points at 9,958.

last night over the pond it was a bit topsy-turvey, with the rumour of a bank close to a Chapter 11 situation gaining some strength.  The DJI closed down 120.4 points at 12,302.5, whilst the S&P500 closed down 15.37 points at 1,325.76, and the nasdaq down 43.53 at 2,280.83.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 closed up 15.89 points at 12,820.47, and in Hong Kopng the Hang Seng recently closing up 621.73 points at 23,285.95.  Hong Kong jumped as on the Shanghai market there was some decent investors moving in as commodities gained strength with oil rising yet again on Nymex last night after problems in Iraq again with an explosion on a pipeline.  However, the price of the black stuff eased in the far East today as people calmed, as it turned out the explosion wasn’t as major as feared.  Light Sweet (May del) was down a buck at US$106.5 bbl.

Back here in London, funny goings on at the new £4.3 bln building and technology masterpiece, Terminal 5, have had many observers in fits and the debacle, but thousands and thousands of travellers in tears.  With 20 flights cancelled yesterday and 34 today, chaos is snowballing.  Passengers are being asked to tarvel with hand-baggage only, as well, which isn’t being accepted nor possible by most. British Airways was taking some stick over the fiasco, falling 5p to 242.5p as investors concern over the number of cancelled flights and compensation payments, as well as the hotel costs for housing the unfortunate customers.  With BA’s staff not being able to find parking spaces, not knowing how to opearte the state-of-the-art baggage system, and a host of other problems, claims of ‘early teething problems’ wasn’t washing with most.

Onto the markets, it was the housebuilders that were under pressure. Nationwide’s house price survey said the UK’s housing market was weaker again in March, causing the annual growth rate to be at its lowest level in more than a decade. Nationwide said house prices fell 0.6% in March from February, with annual growth down to just 1.1%.  Housebuilder Persimmon was down 35p at 755p, Bovis Homes was down 11p at 587p, and Barratts was down 19p at 419.  Property group Land Securities was off 17p at 1,519, and British Land down 12p at 922.

Banks were also under pressure early on, mainly due to the US rumours, it seems, and further speculation that the well-respected Lehman Brothers is also suffering with the sub-prime crisis. Lloyds TSB was down 10p at 450 and HBOS down 4p at 553-1/2. Broker upgrade of HSBC gave that a 5p boost to 826p, though, after Casenove upgraded it to ‘outperform’ from ‘in-line’ citing a healthy balance sheet.

Associated British Foods was down 12p at 877p after a Goldman Sachs downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ and a 929p target.

The miners were up this morning, helped by far Eastern trading, with Anglo up 64p at 3,055, Eurasian Natural Resources up 10p at 975, BHP up 23p at 1,496 and Anto up 11p at 669. Oil stocks were also stronger, with RD Shell up 8p 1,671 and BG Group 9p to the good at 1,132.

Enterprise Inns was looking good this morning, though, up 26p to 390p, or over 7%, after an update that said its figures would be in-line with expectations and nothing uch has changed since the start of the year.  Landsbanki liked the news, upgraded it to ‘buy’ rating, and said it could be worth another £1.50 to the share price. Staying with the licensed trade, Punch Taverns was up 21p at 540 after pulling out of the merger talks with Mitchells & Butlers, who were down 9p at 321p. M&B is understood to have received a number of approaches from various private equity groups, though, with TPG, CVC Capital Partners, Apax, Cinven, and Terra Firma all rumoured to be sniffing with intent, although the FT said a few of them had already also decided to pull out of the running.

The London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE) was up again as well, 33p higher at 1,282 after an update that said it will start a share buy-back program using £500m to do so.

The FTSE closed up today, finishing at 5,717.5, up 57.1 points on the day, but down from the session high of 5,735. The FTSE 250 closed at 9,982, up 225.9 on the day. That’s been quite a run up since the rcent lows a couple of weeks ago. Not sure how far more we go in the short-term, but it does show some confidence is returning. We will say that we feel there will be a shaking up of the markets and a re-levelling of the playing field. Fundamentals, genuine fundamentals, need to be used when these companies are being valued.

Over the pond it was also in positive territory, and by the time London closed the DJI was up 21 points at 12,444, whilst the S&P500 was marginally down, off 3 points at 1,338, and the Nasdaq was also down, off 17 points at 2,307. Rumours that one of the US banks could be looking at a Chapter 11 situation had a few traders concerned. We’ll have to wait and see if we get a confirmation on that, which would have seemed unthinkable this time last year, or even 6 months ago.

Back here in London it was Compass Group, the catering giant, that was singing today. The old ‘turkey twizzler feeder to school kids now come good’ was boasting of a decent set of figures. After revamping the business, selling off smaller subsidiaries, and changing the school menus in answer to Jamie Oliver, it was now paying dividends (pun intended). After refusing to speak to any school authority that won’t pay a minimum of 55p a meal, it has upped its standards. Compass closed up 11p at 321.5p after it said that the first 5 months of its current financial year were showing better than expected figures, and it was sure this strength would continue for the rest of the year.

Oil. Up. Climbing again. Expensive. But we won’t go on about it. Some benefits are for shareholders, of course, and Cairn Energy was u 130p at 2,816 after news that US stockpiles were down and that there was some serious fire-fighting going on in Iraq.

On the banks, where Barclays faired the best as Merrills said it was on its favourite list. Or preferred list, as they call it. Barclays closed up 8.5p at 453.25p after the broker said it was cheap at the current level. merrills also said it reckoned the Bank of England would take some action to help the sector. Just like the Feds did over the pond. Mind you, not sure the help helped, so to speak. Well, not yet, anyway. Peer HBOS was up yet again, closing at 557.5p, up 16p on the day. Those naughty schoolboys that shorted the bank on those nasty rumours last week are still being hunted. We’re up from the 425p low of that day in question to a channel, climbing from the 550p level now.

Staying with the financial sector, Hedge Fund Manager Man Group closed up 14.5p at 560p after it said its profits for the year would be growing by a very healthy 40%, way above expectations.

FirstGroup closed up 22p at 566.5p on news it would meet expectations, and added that it expected a strong performance to continue. Merrills reiterated its ‘buy’ stance.

Builders and plumbers merchant Wolseley closed up another 25p to 552p on the back of a Goldman Sachs upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ’sell’ and added that it thinks its on the bottom, with all the bad news built in to the share price now.

On to the housebuilders where Persimmons closed up 52p at 789.5, Bellway up 96p at 885p, Barratts up nearly 31p at 438p and Redrow closed up 25.5p at 314.5.

Kingfisher closed down 4.7p at 130.4 after halving its final divvy payment, and said it expected to do the same with the next interim payment too.

Rentokil Initial closed up 8.5p at 96p on a broker upgrade, with Merrills giving it a ‘buy’ rating and 120p target, with the new management getting the thumbs up, it seems, after the stock has had a somewhat hard time of late.

The FTSE opened up this morning, and after an hour was up about 54 points at 5,714, whilst the FTSE 250 was up about 130 points at 9,886.

Over the pond last night the DJI closed down 109.74 points at 12,422.86, but this was up nearly 50 points from the low of the session.  The S&P500 was down 11.86 ponts on the day at 1,341.13 and the Nasdaq at 16.69 points at 2,324.36.

Over in the Far East today the Nikkei 225 closed down 102.5 points, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng recently closed up 47.21 points at 22,664.22.

Oil prices were up in Far East trading today, with Light Sweet (May del) up about 40c at US£106 bbl, and Brent (May del) up about 35c at US$104.3 bbl.

Here in London it was the catering group Compass Group that was doing well, with a trading update that said things were better than expected, giving a 12p rise to 322p this morning.

Firstgroup, the bus and train operator, was up nearly 20p at 564p after a trading update that said it was also doing ok, and was in-line with expectations.

On to financials, the banks were doing ok this morning. Barclays was up 8p at 453p on a broker comment from Merrills that said the company was basically the best value for investment in the sector at the moment. It also added that it expected the BoE to take some action to help the UK money markets back to somwhere near the norm. Peer Standard Chartered was up 15p at 1,773.

Building materials group Wolseley was 18p up at 545p after a Goldman Sachs broker upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ’sell’.

Onto oil, where Cairn Energy was up 75p at 2,761 due to oil getting dearer again.  Peer Tullow Oil was up 10p at 667.

On the downside, Kingfisher was down 2p at 133p after saying it was halfing its divvy after a near 3% drop in pre-tax profit for the year. It added that the next interrim divvy would also be about 50% down too.  Year end 02Feb PBIT was £386m, which was down from £397m.  

The FTSE closed down 28.7 points today at 5,660.4, but this was up from its low of the day, which was down about 50 points from yesterday’s close.  The FTSE 250 closed down 38.5 points at 9,756.1.

Over the pond the US opend down as well, with durable goods figures down for Feb. By the time London closed the DJI was down nearly 110 points at 12,423, whilst the S&P500 was down around 11 points at 1,341 and the Nasdaq off 26 points at 2,315.

Back here in London, and carrying ion from this morning, the news that Vale were pulling out of bid talks with Xstrata caused the miner to close down over 5%, or 194p at 3,522.  It appears investors moved into peers, as what with gold and copper on the up again we saw others gain.  Anglo closed up 103p at 2,945, Rio up 65p at 5,050, Kazakhmys up 64p at 1,606, and Lonmin up 76p at 3,101. One faller, and on its FTSE 100 open day too, was Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation, closing down 6p at 970p.

Also on its first day with the FTSE 100, or first day back, we should say, was Tate & Lyle, who closed down 29.5p at 553.5p, probably due to its recent run after news was out that it was rejoining the top 100 elite gang.

Some shares were down due going ex-div, with builders supply group Wolseley closing down 23.5p at 527, and insurance giant Aviva closing down a massive 34.5p at 601p on the day.

The Pharmas also suffered, with the two majors down after a Morgan Stanley broker downgrade.  Glaxo closed down 28p at 1,046, whilst peer AstraZeneca closed down 87p at 1,845p.  New targets of £21.50 (down from £24.50) and £11.61 (down from £13.91) respectively.

Market Analyser data feeder Reuters closed down 4.5p at a penny short of 6-quid after its shareholders approved the takeover by Thomson Corp, owner of Thomson Financial News, at the EGM here in London. Trading of the new ‘Thomson Reuters’ group shares will kick off on 17th April.

Sainsbury closed up 21.5p at 358p after the 3rd largest supermarket group reported over a 4% rise in 4th quarter sales. It also added it was entering into a JV with British land.

Vodafone closed up 1.7p at 153.6p on press reports that cash will soon be arriving again by way of divvy from US JV partner Verizon Wireless.  This news helped Cable & Wireless, which climbed 3.1p to 141.9, which also received a broker upgrade from UBS, with a new ‘neutral’ rating, up from ’sell’, but a 140p target (down from 150p) left the shares where they belong in the broker’s eyes.

Oil was up again, with Nymex showing US$104.85 bbl (May del), up over $3.50, Brent (May del) was up to US$103.75 bbl, up $3.15 bbl.  This helped the oil majors, with RD Shell closing up 19p at 1,657, and Tullow Oil up 9p at 657.5p.

Bellway was down 21p at 789p after the housebuilder reported a 3.9% drop in its 1st half pre-tax profits, but did say it was still confident, although added that it expected completions on sales to be down 5-10% for this year end in July. Peer Bovis Homes Group was 32p down at 565.5p after going ex-dividend.

Debenhams was down over 12p to 59.25p, off 17% on the day, as broker Merrills placed 47m shares at 60p-66p.

Good morning

Strong IFO number out today…

Take a look at my favourite currency the GBPCHF. Order below 2.0150 for a strong 200 point move. Take a look at the entry point on the break of the support line on the 1st chart.

This is how we will be trading on the ‘Live’ sessions.

The FTSE was down this morning after the Dow fell back last night in the US. The FTSE was off about 20 points at 5,669, whilst the FTSE 250 was up about 27 points at 9821.

Over the pond last night the DJI closed down 16.04 points at 12,532.6, whilst the S&P500 closed up 3.11 points at 1,352.99, and the Nasdaq up 14.3 at 2,341.05.  One thing to note ref the housing, is that a report showed home prices slumped nearly 11% from a year ago in the major US cities.

In the far East today, the Nikkei 225 closed 38.59 points down at 12,706.63, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng recently closed up 152.49 points at 22,617.01.

Oil was up again in Far East trading, with New York’s main contract, light sweet crude (May del) up over 50c at US$101.75 bbl, and Brent North Sea crude (May del) was up 30c at US$100.90 bbl.

Here in London this morning Xstrata had a poor start, down about 10%, as news that Brazilian outfit Vale confirmed it had pulled out of bid talks with Xstrata, who were down 365p at 3,351.  Other miners were mixed, with Lonmin up 27p at 3,052, and Anglo up 37p at 2,879. Kazakhmys was doing well, up 5% so far, or 77p at 1,619, after an FT report said that the government of Kazakhstan is considering doing a deal with its largest copper producer and swapping some mining assets for a stake in Kazakhmys.

United Utilities was down 8p at 688.5 after some profit taking after te company said its results would be in-line with expectations.

Sainsburys was up 8p at 345, after the supermarket group reported a 4% rise in 4th quarter sales, showing that things aren’t so bad with trade after all.