Archive for March, 2008

The FTSE was down again this morning, and by 9am was down about 42 points at 5,503.1, whilst the FTSE 250 was down at 9,467.9, down around 83 points.

Last night over the pond the DJI closed down 293 points at 12,099.66, whilst the S&P500 closed down 32.32 points at 1,298.42, and the Nasdaq down 58.3 points at 2,209.96.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 was having another holiday (how many bank holidays do they get…??!!), whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng recently closed down 758.72 points at 21,108.22.

Here in London the miners were down, continuing on from the pressure they took in Hong Kong today. Gold and other metals were down as well, with the ’state’ of the world economy causing concerns. Anglo was down 165p at 2,746, Vedanta down 120p at 1,890, Rio down nearly 240p at 4,831, and Xstrata down 162p at 3,554.

Man Group was off over 20p at 510p as the fund manager’s US business MF Global has had some serious health problems this week, although MF’s share price has recovered from the low of about $3 earlier on to about $9 now. There has been some concern over an apparent ‘rogue trader’ who has taken a massive loss on one of the commodities over the last few weeks, but this has yet to be confirmed.

Back here again, aero-engine maker Rolls-Royce were down over 9p at 399p after there were some concerns aired about the impact the delayed Boeing 787 Dreamliner will have on its business. Apparently the new aeroplane will be way behnd schedule. Broker Evo reiterated its ’sell’ stance.

Cruise operator Carnival was down 50p at 1,879 as the figures due to be posted later today may not be as good as hoped. Staying with broker Evo, they said that £232m should be a Q1 profit figure, which is down from nearly £280m last year. What the booking figures are for this summer will sway the feeling on this one, we think.

Rentokil were up over 14p to 87p after news of an internal shake up. Boardroom changes for the courier delivery side of the business were taken as positive. The group said it has appointed ex ICI chief executive John DG McAdam as chairman, Alan J Brown, also ex ICI, as chief executive and Andy M Ransom as executive director corporate development. Evo still likes this one and feels it’s off the floor, and promptly reiterated its ‘buy’ rating.

Bank HBOS recovered somewhat from yesterday’s falls, up 5p at 451p. The bank’s shares fell like a stone earlyt doors yesterday on rumours of liquidity problems and that halifax had no money to lend. The bank denied this and the FSA are very upset that scaremongering and false rumours are rife. Nothing new there, then.

The FTSE fell back today, closing down 60 points at 5,546, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down closed down 50.3 points at 9,551. Rumours about HBOS didn’t help the feelings today.

By the time London closed, over the pond the DJI was down about 64 points at 12,329, whilst the S&P500 was down about 4 points at 1,327, and the Nasdaq down nearly 11 points at 2,257. The US did open up, but profit taking soon came in after yesterday’s massive jump and interest rate cut of another 0.75%.

The banks were in focus again, especially HBOS, who had rumours of their cap in hand to the bank of England for some cash, with murmours that Halifax doesn’t have any cash to loan out, with liquidity being a problem. HBOS denied the rumours saying they were “complete and utter nonsense”, but the shares still closed down nearly 34 points at 446.25, but had ben down as low as 398p during the day. Peer Alliance & Leicester closedd down 14p at 501.5p, and Bradford & Bingley closed down 12p at just shy of 193p. Other banks did well, with Barclays closing up 10p at just shy of 423p, whilst Lloyds TSB closed up nearly 11p at 427p, and Standard Chartered up 52p at 1,668p.

carrying on from this morning, ICAP announced it expects more than the expected £312m profit for the year, and closed up 2p at 553p on the news.

Cadbury Schweppes closed up 3.5p at 562.5p after a trading update on their confectionary sales so far this year.

Imperial Tobacco closed up 61p at 2,325 on a positive trading update, and also said that it plans for no more than a £5 bln rights issue for the Altadis buy.

Pharma giant Astrazeneca closed up 53p at 1,842 on the back of an HSBC upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ and a 21-quid target.

Next closed down 71p at 1,108 on the back of a 4.1% rise in profits, but a downbeat forecast for the tough year this year. Peer Marks & Sparks closed down 1p at 377p.

Miners were down, with Lonmin down 223p at 3,014, Vedanta down 88p at 2,010, BHP down 74p at 1,441, and Rio down 203p at 5,070.

Enterprise Inns fell nearly 12p at 367p after other 2nd tier brewers also fell. Punch Taverns closed down 20p at 527p, Marstens down 10p at 200.5p, JD Wethersppon down 8p at just shy of 241, and Mitchells & Butlers closed up 12.5p at 340p despite a broker target reduced to 235p from 450p.

Good afternoon

A lot of opportunites out there using our Box Strategy…

Seems like the tidal wave is coming across the atlantic quicker than expected and the BofE are going to be pressurised into cutting rates here soon. Unfortunately GBP is being tarnished in the same light as the USD $ which isn’t great…

Take a look at GBP falling today. Is this the start of something!!!

The FTSE was down this morning, despite a promising start, off about 22 points at 5,582 in its first hour, whilst the FTSE 250 was down 108 points at 9,493.

Lat night over the pond Wall Street had a wonderful day, with the DJI closing up 420.41 points at 12,392.66 - through that 12k line again.  The S&P500 closed up 54.14 points at 1,330.74, and the Nasdaq up 91.25 points at 2,268.26.  The Feds cut interest rates by another 75 points (0.75%), which gave some positive reasons for investors to move back in to the markets.  Interest rates have been cut by 3% in the USA since September.  Desperate measures.  Don’t hold your breath for the same in the UK, as it is widely expected the BoE will keep rates at 5.25% for at least another month.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 closed up 296.28 points at 12,260.44, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Senf finished its morning session up 584.58 pointsd at 21,969.19.

Oil was down in Asian trade, with Light Sweet (Apr del) trading at US$108 bbl, whilst Brent crude (Apr del) was down over a dollar at US$104.42 bbl.

Onto equities, where bank HBOS had a bad start, down 11p at 469p after it was rumoured the bank was having some liquidity problems. Lloyds TSB received some better verbal support, but was still down 8p at 408.5p, with others similarly falling back.  Barclays was down 13p at 4-quid, whilst RBS was down 20p at 306p, and HSBC off 16p at 784p (but had gone ex-div today).

Other financials fell, some due to going ex-div, with Standard Life down 3.5p at 239p after the insurer went ex-dividend.

British Energy was down 13p at 640p after a broker Dresdner Kleinwort downgrade to ’sell’ from ‘hold’, but left its target at 490p.

Smiths Group had a good atrt, up over 30p to 977p after some decent figures.  A £165m profit for 6 months was well received, up nearly 30m on last year for the same period.

Pharma giant Astrazeneca was up over 30p at 1,820 after a HSBC upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ and a 21-quid target.

ICAP was up 12p at 563p after the group said it expects an annual profit better than the expected £312m after a better 2nd half ofg the year.

The miners also did well this morning as the Australians metal prices rose over night. Rio Tinto was up 90p at 5,361, Anglo up 85p at 3,093, Vedanta up 61p at 22-quid, and Xstrata up 60p at 3,848.

 Good morning

With all great falls there will be retacements and this is where my Box strategy comes into play. Log into our 7 Day Free trial and watch and learn how i trade these different strategies.

GBPJPY is a classic example of my elastic pullback to the 200MA with a bounce off the support line. Thats nearly 700 points in a day…

 Take a look at USDJPY for a 250 point pullback…Can you start seeing the same strategy…Wait for the big moves either way from the 200ma and then trade the pullback!!!

USDCHF is the same for another 250points… Its up to you if you want to trade against the main daily trend but the stronger the initial move the stronger the pullback on the 60min…

The FTSE had a ‘bit of a rally’ today, with some investors returning. No-one knows who they are, but some of the financial stocks look like they could have bottomed. For now. Anyway, the FTSE 100 closed up 191.4 points at 5,605.8, whilst the FTSE 250 closed up 220.8 points at 9,601.5.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up about 285 points at 12,258, whilst the S&P500 was up around 36 points at 1,313 and the Nasdaq up 55 points at 2,232. Hope that the Feds will announce a further 1% cut in interest rates could be possible. The Bear Sterns collapse frightened everyone, so the Feds and Central bank want to boost the market and give incentives for investors to return.

Back here in London the bottom feeders were grabbing some of the banks. RBS closed up 21.25p at 326p, HSBC up 54p at 8-quid, and Alliance & Leicester up nearly 40p at 515.5p.

Top FTSE performer of the day, though, was Man Group, who closed up 43.5p at 529.5, whlst ICAP was close too, with a 44.5p rise to 551p. IG Group closed up 16p at jst over 333p.

Legal & General closed up 3.6p at 122.8p after the insurance giant announced a decent set of figures, with a strong reserve increase of £269m reserve strengthening for annuitant longevity. Wilst last year’s profit fell 26%, Panmore Gordon said that the EEV per share of 134.5p was better than expected.

Pharmas did well. Shire Pharma clsoed up 61.5p at 1,058.5 after saying that giant AstraZeneca could afford to pay up to 1,425p a pop for Shire and still create value. Buy rating followed with that 14-quid target.

TUI Travel closed up over 18p at 261/25p after a decent set of 1st quarter results. As we said this morning, the 1st quarter losses had been more than halved after a decent start to the year. A broker ‘buy’ rating followed.

Oil did well as well, with oil prices up again. BP was up 9p at 518.25p and RD Shell closed up 36p at 1,718.5p, whilst Tullow Oil closed up 22.5p at 651.25p.

Miners looked good too, with Rio closing up 212p at 5,270 with its decent update on “significant progress” being made on work on the Yarwun alumina refinery in Queensland. The US£1.8 bln project will more than double Yarwun’s annual production, lifting output to 3.4 mln tons per year by 2011 from 1.4m ton per year at present.

The FTSE rose this morning, early doors, as some bounce arrived after what seemed like a bit of a meltdown yetserday. In its first hour the FTSE was up about 85 points at 5,499, whilst the FTSE 250 was up about 90 points at 9,570. Interest seemed average in the markets, which we take as quite a cautious reaction to the US close last night.

Over the pond last night the DJI actually closed up 21.2 points at 11,972.30 despite being doen nearly 200 points earlier on. The S&P500 closed down 11.55 points at 1,276.6 and the Nasdaq down 35.48 at 2,177.01. It seemed investors didn’t like the smaller stocks and put money back into the bigger stuff once they reliased the Fed money coming to market, accompanied by the JP Morgan Chase $240m buyout of Bear Sterns was backed by the Government over the weekend, gave investors some confidence that the market will receive some heavy backing. We’re not so sure, and we think the next year is going to be unstable whilst banks and financial houses announce more and more write downs and the sector needs to find some stability and a true ‘floor’, using the new fundamentals after the current credit crisis is known exactly, and valued correctly.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 closed 176.65 points at 11,914.16, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng recently closed 300 points to the good at 21,384.61.

Back here in London the financial sector had a little flurry of activity with some bargain hunters out there having a punt. The banks saw some positive territory, with HSBC up 20p at 766p, Barclays up 8p at 401, and Lloyds TSB also up 8p at 406p.

Other financials also had a decent start, with ICAP up 22p at 529, Man Group up 21p at 507p and Old Mutual up 2.5p at 104.3p.

Oil & gas also looked good, especially as the price of a barrel of the black stuff was now knocking US$112 bbl in the Far East earlier today. This fell back somwewhat this morning, though, but the heavyweights were still stronger. BP was up 9p at at 519p, RD Shell up 30p at 1,676, and Cairn Energy up 40p at 2,806.

Onto Pharmas, where Shire Pharma was up nearly 8%, with a 80p rise to 1,077 on a statement that AstraZeneca could afford to pay £14.25 a share for Phrama and still create more value. Broker upgrade to ‘buy’ followed immediately.

Onto travel, where TUI Travel was up 7p at 250p after a fairly decent set of 1st quarter results, saying that first quarter losses were halved aftre a decent start to the year.

Onto miners, where Rio was up 125p at 5,186 after announcing it had made “significant progress” on expansion work at the Yarwun alumina refinery in Queensland. The US$1.8 bln project, announced in July 2007, will more than double Yarwun’s annual production, lifting output to 3.4 m tons per year by 2011 from 1.4m tons at the moment.

Legal & General was up 2.7p at 222p after the insurance giant reported a decent set of numbers, with its reserve increase of 269 mln stg for annuitant longevity being welcomed. Although profit fell 26% last year, broker Panmore Gordon said the Embedded Value per share at 134.5p was ahead of expectations.

On to the reds - British Energy Group, which had a wonderful day yesterday compared to most, was down 10p at 625p on profit taking.

Building and Plumbing supplier Wolseley was down 5p to 478p after a broker downgrade to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’, after a cautious statement. Peer SIG was up 2p at 775p as investors looked like moving into there.

The FTSE had a poor day, fuelled by the Bear Sterns collapse in the States. The FTSE closed down 217.3 points at 5,414.4, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 325.4 at 9,380.6. Volume was heavy, with investors moving their money out of the market.Over the pond it was the Bear Strens collapse that had everyone upset. With the financial institution bought by JP Morgan Chase for just $240m, investors saw their shares worth a fifteenth of what they were one week ago. By the time London closed the DJI was about 145 points down at 11,805.4, whilst the S&P500 was off about 26 points at 1,262 and the Nasdaq down around 50 points at 2,162.

JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns for US$236.2m, which equested to US$2 per share, down from the US$30 per share on Friday. The deal was backed by the Feds. Whilst the Fed & US Government rushed the approval of the deal through over the weekend it did nothing to calm fears of the investors who feel that there will be many more failures and similar stories in the coming weeks and months.

back here in London this all caused the banks to take some stick. HBOS closed down 67.5p at 460.5, barclays down 40.5p at 392.5, and RBOS was down 29p at just shy of 305p.

ICAP closed down 91.5p at 506.5 as other financials got hit too. Friends Provident was down 8.9p at 113.1p, and our beloved London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE) was down 107p at 1,125p. The LSE spun off the unit MF Global last year, and rumours were rife that the LSE was pulling cash from there. MF Globla fell 70% on the day, down to somewhere around $6 a share.

Yello Pages distributer Yell Group fell yet another 20.3p to 147p as concerns over ongoing revenue and high gearing were a concern. Peers were also off, with Johnston Press down 14.5p at just shy of 124p and Informa down nearly 28p at 288.25p.

Building merchant Wolseley closed down 49p at 483 announced a fall in results, which was expected, but a cautious outlook didn’t help. Profits were down by 30% to £233m. Broker Evo gave it a ’sell’ rating immediately.

Housebuilders were down too, with Barratts down nearly 32p at 364p and Bovis down 30p to close at 490.5p.

DIY retailers Kingfisher and Home Retail Group didn’t like the Wolseley news and closed down 5.3p to 125.0 and 11.25p to just shy of 239p resepctively.

Trying to find something positive got us to some energy firms, with British Energy up 11.2% with a 64p rise to close at 635.5 after news of a possible buy out. British Energy said it is currently in discussions with a number of companies with a view to developing new nuclear power stations in the UK, which could lead to a takeover. Evo raised its target to 650p, up from 6-quid. Peer Drax closed up 8p at 523p on the news.

Pharmaceuticals looked safe, for now, with GlaxoSmithKline closing up 15p to 1,016 and Shire Pharma up 8p to 998p.

Good afternoon

I hope you are all well and i am really happy for so many of you who are turning this around and making some huge profits over the last few months…

Take a look at the Currency charts below… The USD $ weakness has made trading easier for us and USDJPY has dragged GBPJPY down and consequently GBPCHF has fallen with USDCHF…

If you had held GBPJPY, USDJPY and GBPCHF for the last 72 hours on the Daily charts you would have made yourself over 2,500 pips…Even if you took 50% of thos pips thats over 1,250 pips…

Hi Dan

I made 897 pips last week with no losses…

Thanks

Gareth