Archive for May, 2008

Anyone who saw the post about SABmiller a couple of months ago and agreed that the stock was coming off the bottom would be up about 25% now.

Here’s the post: here.

Now the price is sitting at about £13.00, and seems to be baulking - or building some weight. For those still in this one you may be looking at volumes now. We’re sitting on the 200-day MA, plus have been using the 20 MA as support for the last few weeks. The 20 & 50 MAs have crossed, so we are looking like a strength position. There is a lot of consolidation and M & A activity in this sector as well, so all points for a stronger hold during these turbulant and bearish times. With all this in mind, we’d be tempted to keep hold, but we’ve actually half closed and will use a break under the 20 MA as a stop. One can always get back in again, of course.

Here’s the chart today:

The FTSE 100 closed down 14.6 poinst today at 6,053.5, which was down about 58 points off the session’s high, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 48.9 points at 10,049.3. With the FTSE weighted with oil stocks, the drop in oil price affected those heavyweights, as did the fall in commodity prices, with the metal miners all suffering too.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up just 0.4 points at 12,646.6, whilst the S&P500 was up 2 points at 1,400, and the Nasdaq up 11 poinst at 2,519.5. News from the US government that consumer spending rose in April didn’t cause too much of a stir as it was only in-line with rising costs of food and goods etc.

Back here in Lodnon, it was British Airways that was top of the leader board as the drop in oil price to around US$125 bbl helped the airline recover some ground. BA closed up 17.5p at 232.5p, also on the back of news that busienss airline Silverjet has suspended operations with immediate effect, giving BA one less competitor and those business passengers looking for alternatives.  Peer easyjet closed up 6p at 301p, also on the back of the lower oil price.

Staying with travel, cruise operator Carnival was up again nicely, 53p higher at 1,918p.

on to the bad news, where the oil stocks were those hit the most. RD Shell closed down 40p at 2,105p, Cairn Energy down 53p to 3,366p, BG Group down 28p at 1,266p, and Tullow Oil down 32p at 890p. News that Origin Energy of Austrlia had turned down BG Group’s offer of $15.50 a share didn’t help BG, either.

As mentioned earlier, commodities were down, meaning the metal miners were also down. Copper is now sub US$8,000 per ton, whilst gold was also suffering. BHP Billiton closed down 46p at 1,914, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp (ENRC) closed down 22p at 1,459, and Rio Tinto closed down 125p at 6,055.

Insurers were in favour, with Friends Provident up 4.1 pence at 121.1, continuing to
pick up from near a 12-month low earlier this week, as takeover speculation continued. Standard Life, meanwhile, took on 8-1/2 pence to 251.

Carrying on from this morning, Johnson Matthey received a Merrill Lynch positive note, closing up 80p at 2,015, after being added to the Merrills favourite Europe 1 list.

DSG International received a Morgan Stanley upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal-weight’, helping the Currys & PC World owner to close up nearly 2p at 58.25p.

{billyp<EN>} 84 oncrude and 50 on gold yesterday

{malai<EN>} made 20 pips after news

Durti_Ca$h<EN>} 7PIPS PROFIT

{Tom_R<EN>} 78 pips on eur yesterday and building today

{david_day<CY>} came ouit 5 pips

{Tonyxx<EN>} I was on a long term trade for Eur/Usd pair yesterday but do not know why IG closed me out for a 52 pips profit about 8:00pm last night

{chris<EN>} made 240 pips yesterday, reluctant to give any back on a friday

{Peter_Fletcher<EN>} made 15 pips on eurusd

{chuka,_i<EN>} I took 6 pips on GBP/USD and closed. didnt want to be a lone ranger

{mandie} just got 19pips on £$ xx

{hemal} 40 on gold

{chuka,_i} 32 points on Gold for me so far

{Bigboy} Just locked in 70 pips on crude - good call Dan. Thanks

{Michelle} going to cr@ppy work now - although at least I know what I’m doing there. 56 pips down on the week. Have a good weekend

{Moose_Specialist} 220 on natgas yesterday helpe

{billyp} 178 pips in two days im happy with that

{Bigboy} Going back to bed. 30 pips on Euro/$ Up 100 pips for the morning. Really chuffed - thanks guys

{andy} 95 pips up to now this week

{Tom_R} I lost about 180 pips last week because I was getting into late im 400 up this week!!!!

{Bloom} USDJPY crosses 84 CCI

{linda_m} I have just closed eur usd made 72 pips and decided to take it

{nickmead<EN>} EU 60 pips

{hemal} 20 on gold

{alexjf<EN>} -50 points

{Superman} -51 unfortunately for today. off 3 trades

{Bloom} Still short in Cable. Up 10 pips. First day in the live room.

{nickmead<EN>} 2nd day 52 yesterday

{Simon} GOLD 20, GBP/USD 15 SO FAR TODAY!

{MonkeyTrader<EN>} daily 15 on eur/usd 15 on usd/chf

{vikki} 200

MonkeyTrader<EN>} weekly about 100 pips

{Durti_Ca$h} 35 + 7 FOR ME !

{Johnh<EN>} e/u 30 pips

{Bigboy} 100 today, 515 so far this week

{erakehi<SV>} -40 p oil

{chuka,_i} Closed Gold for a total of 19 points. Total on GBPUSD and EURUSD up 39 pips as I lost 45 pips this morning being long on both from last night.

Bigboy} Sorry 151 not 515 - senior moment

{linda_m} just the one eur usd 72pips

{Geoff} 137 pips this week, fantastic education, I now understand how all the pairs are interlinked and the effect of crude & gold on the dollar

Gareth} UP TO 22 PTS NOW ON CABLE STILL IN

phil} 54pips from two trades so far this week

{Simon} GBP/USD 36 NOW!

{Gordon} BP/USD 32PIPS

{PhilW} 20 now on gbpusd

Flash} +43 at the mo

Bloom} 35 pips on cable now

{PhilW} 25 and out

Geoff2} sorry 29 pips

{Gareth} I HAVE BEEN TRADING FOR SOMETIME BUT I MADE A MISTAKE THIS MORNING DROPPING 10 PIPS ON EURUS BUT I STUCK IY OUT AND NOW OVER 30 UP ON CABLE KEEP IN THERE PHIL

{PhilW} however, I may have tripped up once or twice, but am 130 pips up on the week

The FTSE was diown about 10 points this morning at 6,058, whilst the FTSE 250 was down 7 points at 10,091. Lower crude and commodity prices hindered the energy and mining companies.

Over the pond, last nigh the DJI closed up over 52 points at 12,646.22, which was down about 80 points from its high of the day.  The S&P500 closed up nearly 7.5 points at 1,398.26, and the Nasdaq up over 21.5 points at 2,508.32.  With the dollar gaining some strength the price of the black stuff had fallen about US$4 bbl yesterday, down to around US$126 bbl. The US givernment had helped the situationafter reporting that the US economy grew last quarter more than had been estimated.

In the Far East today, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up over 214 points at 14,338.54, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng was up abgout 136 points at 24,520 by its lunchtime chow time.

Back here in London this morning, as mentioned at the top it was the energy & miners that were under pressure. BP was off 6p at 606.5p, and BG Group was down 37p at 1,257, whilst the miners reacted to lowr metal prices, with BHP down 60p at 19-quid, Vedanta Resources down 50p at 2,481, and Xstrata off 110p at 3,930.

Mind you, this fall in the oil price did help the airlines. British Airways had a decent start and was up 14p at 229p, whilst easyJet was up 20p at 315p.

On to financials, where the banks were also doing ok. RBS, after closing at an all-time low yesterday, was up 4p at 236p despite concerns over its £12 bln rights issue, Lloyds TSB was up 7p at 384p, and Alliance & Leicester was up 9p at 429p.

Johnson Matthey was given a decent write-up by Merrills, and promptly rose 37p to 1,972 as it joined Merrills favourite Europe 1 list.

Staying with financials, the insurers also did well, with Friends Provident up 4p at 121p, Standard Life up 8p at 250.5p, and Admiral Group up 20p at 888p.

DSG International was up 3p at 60p after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal-weight’, adding a 90p target, up from 57p, as it felt the Currys & PC World owner was getting its house together after the recent announcment on branch closures etc.

On to building, where Taylor Wimpey rose 4p to 89.5p after a Goldman sachs upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ’sell’, basically saying that this one had really hit the floor and was now looking like value, with all the bad news built in to the price.

The FTSE closed only 1.5 points lower at 6,068.1, down about 62 poits from the day’s high.  The FTSE 250 closed up 40.9 points at 10,098.2.

Over the pond, the DJI was up 40 points at 12,634, whilst the S&P500 was up 7.5 points at 1,398, and the Nasdaq up nerly 14.5 points at 2,501.  The US Commerce Department said the first-quarter GDP growth was at an annual rate of 0.9%, which was better than the 0.6% expected, above 4th-quarter figure of 0.6%, although many had hoped to hit the 1% level. On to employment, where the Labor Department said that jobless claims were up by 4,000 to 372,000, which wasn’t quite as bad as many feared, but continuing unemployment claims stayed above the 3m level for the 5th week in a row.

Back here in London it was the banks and the housebuilders that had a poor day. With house prices down 2.5%, we’re told, and builders moth-balling projects, both sectors took hits.

The banks were down, with HBOS off nearly 17p at 414.25, barclays down nearly 10p at 377.5p, and RBS down over 6p at just shy of 232p. ABN Amro didn’t help, either, with their sector review that forecasts a strong reversal in both earnings yield and leverage, which have both helped drive up financial sector returns in recent years.

On to the housebuilders, where Persimmons was down 26p at 487.5p, Barratt Developments down 10.5p at 190p, Taylor Wimpey down 8p at 85.5p, and Bovis Homes down 19p at 429p. The only FTSE 100 memmber, Persimmons looks like it couldget kicked out in the reshuffle next month too. Building materials group Wolseley was also down 19.5p to cose at 537.5 after a Panmure Gordon reminder of their ’sell’ stance and 4-quid target.

BT Group didn’t have a good day, closing down over 4p at 222.25p after a SG Securities ’sell’ stance and 2-quid target was made apparent.

Trying to find some good news, oil heavyweights did well, despite the price of the black stuff down $3 to $4 today, as BP closed up 7p at 612.5p, RD Shell up 28p at 2,145, Tullow Oil up 24.5p at 922p, and Cairn Energy up 104p at 3,419.

On to financials again, where hedge fund manager Man Group closed up 30.5p at 619p after reporting a 60% growth in full-year profit, immediately nudging Credit Suisse to up its target by 30p to 670p.

On to the miners, where Rio Tinto closed up 43p at 6,180p after an upbeat production update, and ENRC was up 71p at 1,481p as those bid rumours are still doing the rounds.

Realy enjoying the education that you and your team are showing me. I made 43 pips today on oil,

Thanks dan.

Paul H

Hi Dan,

I would just like to say how positive I found the room to be. Unfortunatly I got out of gold a bit too early but still banked 20 odd points. Regrdless, it was a great experience and I look forward to developing further.

Hemal

Morning all

A few examples of our trades this morning in the Live Room..

Well done all..Great team effort.

11:23:25 {vikki} if it goes through that trendline it should fall
11:24:24 {PhilW} 53 pips so far
11:24:36 {PhilW} on gold
11:24:46 {PhilW} thanks
11:24:52 {vikki} 25 still in
11:25:01 {hemal} 20 on gold for today
11:25:05 {stuey_kershaw} 32 pips gold
11:25:06 {PhilW} my manicurist will have a fit
11:25:07 {Tonyxx} Comments on entering a long term long trade on GBP/CHF
11:25:10 {Mark_G} 70 pips on gold so far
11:25:12 {Geoff} 48 still in 2 trades
11:25:18 {Johnh<EN>} 30 pps eur/usd
11:25:21 {Richard} Let’s hope fot some action on CL!!
11:25:34 {vikki} order in on oil
11:25:35 {Simon} 45 GOLD - 23 EUR/USD AND STILL IN!
11:25:35 {Nicholas} Up 99 PIPs (mucked up exit of Gold first time getting the papers)
11:25:46 {Gordon} GOLD 5 PIPS!!!
11:25:51 {Gordon} CHIEKENED OUT SORRY!
11:25:52 {chris} G/U 40, Current open positions 80 pips
11:25:57 {Geoff} 48 euro/usd
11:25:59 {Superman} good first day =  +30 pips GBPUSD +30 pips EURUSD should have held both, could have made over a hundred.
11:26:00 {Richard} 4.5 pips short on Gold - should have stayed in
11:26:14 {Geoff2} 11 PIPS GOLD BACK IN 

11:26:17 {Justin_Jay<EN>} - 40 unfortunatelly. Tried to play GBPJPY and EURJPY on my own. good thing is that this is demo account
11:26:20 {Richard} Durti scared me off
11:26:36 {Pauly} 46 POINTS GOLD AND 70 POINTS EUR STILL HOLDING !
11:26:39 {Flash} Listen to you next time Dan, chickened out of Gold!.
11:26:57 {Nicholas} Thank you, Dan
11:26:58 {John_M} Eeur/usd 30 pips gold still running currently 80
11:27:05 {linda_m} 20pips in euo usd and 10 pips in gold
11:27:06 {Simon} CRUDE BREAKING THROUGH 84 CCI!
11:27:07 {hemal} thanks dan
11:27:11 {simango} crude 60 gold 3o still in
11:27:11 {vikki} good day so far hopefully oil will fall later
11:27:15 {linda_m} bye
11:27:19 {vikki} byee
11:27:21 {Richard} thanks a lot Dan!
11:27:31 {chris} Thanks Dan
11:27:37 {PhilW} good day today, thanks dan and team
11:27:38 {Geoff2} Bye 

11:27:38 {Simon} CHEERS DAN & EVERYONE - WELL DONE!
11:27:38 {Simon_B_-_New_Zealand<EN>} cheers dan see you tomoorow
11:27:39 {Monkey_Boy} Bye guys
11:27:42 {Bill_K} Thanks Dan
11:27:45 {John_M} ‘bye all
11:27:49 {billyp} 35 ongold so far
11:27:50 {Flash} Thanks All cu soon