Archive for June, 2008

As expected, London closed down today, the end of the week, off 88.5 points at 5,906.8, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 175.9 points at 9,834.3.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was down about 260 points at 12,344, whilst the S&P500 was down about 25 points at 1,379, and the Nasdaq down 45 points at 2,505. This was a reaction to the non-farm payroll figures, which showed US unemployment had risen and the price of oil jumping up 6-bucks a bbl.

Back here in London, with the oil price leaping up again on concerns of Middle East possible military action & problems, it was those that use the stuff that were affected the most. British Airways, who have had a decent few days, fell nearly 21p to 233.5p, peer easyJet down nearly 26p at 307.5p, whilst cruise ship operator Carnival fell 95p to close at 1,846p.

Staying with the black stuff, where the oil related stocks were popular as oil was on the up again. Cairn Energy closed up 116p at 3,305, RD Shell up 9p at 2,055, Tullow Oil closed up 6.5p at 900.5p, Venture Production up 15p at 895p, and Premier Oil closed up 66p at 1,654p. Premier Oil had said that its overall production was above 40,000 bbl per day so far this year, and saying it was on track to reach 50,000 bbl per day at the end of 2010.

With the dollar getting weaker, the metal prices rose, helping the miners. Xstrata closed up 145p at 4,107, BHP up 25p at 1,903p, and ENRC up 32p at 1,380p.

Perth-based fuel supplier Scottish & Southern Energy, the fuel supplier, closed up 35p at 1,509p after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal-weight’, adding a 1,780p target, up 330p from its previous saying higher power prices and market share were very positive.

Johnson Matthey closed up 49p at 2,012 after Credit Suisse upped its target 120p to 1,770p.

On to insurance, where Standard Life closed down 15.5p at just shy of 247p after a Deutche Bank downgrade to ’sell’, adding a 266p, 23p lower.

Communication sector saw Cable & Wireless close down 4p at just shy of 164p after Thus Telecom 3.9, as Thus rejected a 165p per share cash bid from C&W. Thus closed up a penny at just shy of 157p. Peer Carphone Warehouse had a better day, up 6p to just shy of 243p after Merrill Lynch stuck it on its preferred list.

Carpetright closed down 30.5p at 765p after an Altium Securities downgrade to ’sell’ from ‘hold’, adding a 640p target, down 82p from its previous.

High Street jeweller Signet closed down 3.5p at just shy of 60p after reporting a 24% reduction in 1st quarter profit.

Hi Dan,

Won`t be at the NFP room as off to France for weekend. Just to let you know finished the week up 243 pips up,- all live trading - got a few sneaky ones on the Dax just before I left. A great improvement on my previous trading. Start making a living out of this soon !

Hope you all have a good weekend and looking forward to getting 300 pips next week.

Chris

CsFx

Good afternoon all…

Well what a week and i take my hat off to you all… Half the group came to the room this afternoon to trade the NFP…Lot sof fun and above all many of us managed 100-200 pips on the Crude…

Excellent finish to the week and cant wait till monday.

Regards

Dan

14:15:3   (barry} crude +132

15:35:18 {rockdrive} 135..

15:37:53 {hemal} 60 pips and out

15:39:31 {Bigboy} Just locked in 76 pips on crude - shame it was only £1 per pip

15:48:02 {Tonyxx} 54 points total up for week across several markets

15:48:35 {Gordon} I HAVE TO GO DAN I’M OF TO CINCINNATI TODAY. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. TOOK  50 PIPS THIS WEEK FROM HOTEL ROOMS AROUND THE US!

15:50:31 {Durti_Ca$h} GOT 1142 TO PLAY WIITH. DON’T MIND A ROUND 1000 !

15:50:21 {rockdrive} Well I had 6 trades going together - what a blast

15:54:45 {bob} 115 pips banked and my stratergy is now in place. 50 ma, cci, support

15:58:20 {Bigboy} Dan - you are the man - just cracked 507 pips for the week - and didn’t trade Tuesday. Have a great weekend

16:02:10 {vikki} 19 up already

16:07:11 {Durti_Ca$h} 45 UP ON THE FTSE

16:11:10 {barry} 50 on crude from 134.20

16:12:09 {jack} 200 

16:12:16 {Durti_Ca$h} GREAT JACK !!

16:12:18 {Simon} FANTASTIC JACK!

16:15:40 {Durti_Ca$h} 92 AND COUNTING

16:19:19 {John_M} Only 35 for the week against 155 last week. But max loss was only -10pips early in week and missed a few good trades but a great learning week once again and almost know what I’m trying to do now! Have a good weekend all

 16:25:04 {Jun<JA>} going to bed, it’s 11PM over here. thanks dan and guys i’ve learned a lot in my first 3 days here.

16:25:46 {Durti_Ca$h} CHOPPING MINE WITH 139

16:26:51 {vikki} 108

16:29:19 {rocwell} out with 130 pips

16:30:23 {rocwell} 289 pips for the week!

16:30:40 {Simon} GREAT TRADING !

16:32:20 {Durti_Ca$h} 1142 + 139 JUST THEN + 29 USDJPY. OH AND FTSE ABOUT 30 !

16:32:28 {jack} 685 nice one 

16:32:28 {hemal} 110, 60 on crude, 40 on usd chf & 10 gbpusd

16:32:33 {Gareth} 547  ONLY 4 AND A BIT DAYS

16:32:47 {W€$T¥} Started trading your strategy on Monday after picking it up on FX Fishermen and made 256 pips for the week

16:33:06 {rockdrive} Great work Dan and MBC - off for an early bath - 80 on week.  great stuff and bye

16:33:09 {andy} 262 this week

16:33:18 {vikki} + 250

16:33:19 {Billy_P<EN>} 221 defo going for pint

16:33:25 {vikki} not the 500 yet

16:33:33 {Simon} 403!

16:33:40 {Rupert} First day just sat on the sidelines, thoroughly enjoyed it can’t wait for monday morning

16:33:52 {hemal} thanks Dan, DC not 500 yet but hopefully soon

16:33:54 {manorlad} 1872 pips for week

16:33:58 {Simon} WELL DONE EVERYONE! - CHEERS DAN!

16:34:12 {Durti_Ca$h} GOOD STUFF EVERYONE. BRILLIANT !!

16:34:11 {Bloom} wow, 1872!!

16:36:03 {Geoff} thanks +175 for week

16:36:23 {Bloom} approx. 202 pips for the week. still crude open

16:39:14 {Simon} FANTASTIC WEEK OF COMMENTS & RESULTS!

16:39:25 {Pauly} FANTASTIC!

16:39:35 {Pauly} NOTHING LIKE IT!

16:39:36 {gareth} BRILLIANT!

16:39:42 {Simon} SUPERB!

16:41:14 {Pauly} HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE!

A bit of a rollercoaster today, with the FTSE falling down and then back to positive territory, and choosing to stay on the better side for the close, which was up 25.2 points at 5,995.3, just shy of the 6k level. Although we can add that it hit 6,005 during the session. The FTSE 250 closed up 33.3 points at 10,010.2, which is above that psychological 10k line.

As predicted, the Bank of England kept interest rates at 5%, whcih we expect to be the same for the next few months at least. Inflation, at 3%, is 1% higher than the 2% target, and looks like getting worse. With inflation rising there won’t be any interest rate cuts, and could even cause a rise if it hits 4%, but we’ll have to see. Analysts reckon that consumer confidence is back to a 20-year low, just as house prices started to fall off in the late 80s. Talking of house prices, Halifax’s housing market survey showed a 2.4% fall in May. Despite some positive moves, we feel the market has further to fall. The FTSE is so weighted with commodity stocks, that any fall back in the metals prices will see the FTSE take a tumble. Oil & metals have been rising at a much higher rate than anything else, giving the miners and oilers big boost.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was up about 125 points at 12,515, whilst the S&P500 was up over 13 points at 1,391, and the Nasdaq up 30 points at 2,533. The unemployment figures were supposed to be better than expected, as the US government said unemployment claims were down.  We’re not sure which part was down, as that’s a suprise.  Non-farm figures tomorrow. News that sales from some of the bigger US stores also helped the US markets jump today. Wal-Mart said their sales were up nearly 10% on the same month last year, which was to everyone’s suprise. It added that its International growth was at 16.6%, with the UK (Asda) seeing shoppers seek the best prices and value for money.

Back here in London, it was the miners that were holding the FTSE back. With metal prices falling, it was the big miners that saw some pull-back. Anglo American closed down 97p at 3,304, BHP down 22p at 1,878, Kazakhmys closed down 45p at 1,625, and Lonmin closed down 104p at 3,350 after a Goldman Sachs downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’. Johnson Matthey, the big metals & chemical buyer/trader, closed off 76p at 1,963 on profit taking, despite saying its prospects remained good and posting a 16% increase in pre-tax profit at £265.4m. Merrill’s liked it, though, reminding everyone of its ‘buy’ stance and 21-quid target.

Vodafone, whcih had gone ex-div this week, closed up 5.8p at 160.45 as news that the telecoms giant was well into a JV deal with US-based Verizon to take out Alltel for £28 bln.

On to banks, where RBS closed up 9.5p at 259p, with the rights issue news coming tomorrow, and rumours of a hedge fund buying up what it could. Peer HBOS closed up 17.5p at 358p, Barclays up 11p to 363p, and Bradford & Bingley up 4.5p at 73.25p, still with the Texas Pacific private equity group sniffing with intent for 20%.

British Airways closed up 10.5p at 254.25p on the back of the recent lower oil price, whilst peer easyJet closed up 18.5p at 333.25p too.

Oil was up to US$123.50 bbl, but it didn’t seem to faze the big users, it seems. Oil companies still suffered, though, with Premier Oil closing down 56p at 1,588, and Hardy Oil & Gas down 49p at 758.

On to the housebuilders, where despite the poor housing figures they seem to be coming off the bottom. Bellway closoed up 32.5p at 626.5p despite the firm saying that the market has gone down in the last few months, resulting in over 30% drop in reservations, and broker Numis still saying it had a ‘buy’ rating. Peer Taylor Wimpey closed up nearly 5p at just shy of 83p, Bovis closed up 17p at 405p, Persimmons up 8.5p at 463.5p, and Redrow closed up nearly 13p at just shy of 227p.
Balfour Beatty closed up 8p at just shy of 427p after buying the construction management company Barnhart, prompting a double smile from ABN Amro and Landsbanki, who both reiterated their ‘buy’ stances.

In to the High Street where retailers also bounced. Home Retail Group, who own Argos, closed up 13.5p at 252p on the back of a Seymour Pierce upgrade, whilst peer Marks & Sparks closed up 11.5p at 392p. DIY experts Kingfisher, who own B&Q, closed up 3.6p at 139.5p as investors felt this week’s figures may not have been as bad as they first thought. Halfords closed up 13p at 279.5p after saying profits were up 8% to £90.2m, which was well received. Three brokers all reiterated their ‘buy’ stance on the popular sat-nav retailer.

Morrisons, the supermarket chain, closed down 7.5p at just shy of 285p after saying sales were slower.

Morning all…GBPCHF wiped a few out today but EURJPy and CRUDE were the winners.

Well done…Messy overall though with MPC out today.

Dan

09:38:59 {Superman} wiped me out too for 32…should have stayed out

09:40:04 {stuey} me to mark -38

10:03:17 {Christoffi} Chris Is Banked 100 pips in EUR/JPY

10:04:27 {Christoffi} Banked 100 pips I do not care what happenes to it

10:05:17 {Christoffi} SO far guys 890 pips this week

10:08:19 {Simon} YES - GREAT INFO DAN!

10:14:24 {Bloom} 20 pips on USDCAD

10:27:49 {alexjf} in on crude up 45 points

10:28:25 {ben} 72 points on crude

10:29:17 {vikki} 60 up im out now on crude

10:31:56 {ben} took the 72 points on the crude

10:32:18 {Durti_Ca$h} WELL DONE BEN. VERY WISE TO GET IN AND OUT. ANYTHING OVER 50 IN 10 MINS IS BRILLIANT.

110:39:52 {Bloom} 3 trades, break even today. 141 pips for the week

10:40:00 {Lisa} 60 pips today

10:40:11 {erakehi<SV>} 75p eur/ypy

10:40:16 {Mark_G} -50 £yen

10:40:17 {Superman} - 32 unfortunately

10:40:24 {hemal} -25 gbp chf

10:40:32 {vikki} +60 1 trade today

10:40:56 {andy} +23 pips EUR/JPY +29 Gold

10:40:57 {david_day<CY>} -30 on gbp chf but only 25 p per point

10:40:58 {Justin_Jay<EN>} closed half of my EURJPY with 52 pips. so I count that as 26. Other half is still open with 80 pips

10:41:00 {Jun<JA>} 10 EURYEN

10:41:09 {jack} -60

10:41:37 {bob} 160 points on dow

10:41:38 {Stefan<EN>} thanks dan and team - no pips only education

10:41:53 {martin} 100 pips on Euro/$ since mon am.100 on dow Mon Tues

10:42:03 {Durti_Ca$h} WELL DONE GUYS !!

10:42:00 {ben} +72 crude +12 EUR/YEN

10:42:05 {linda_m} just the 24pips bye all

10:42:11 {Peter_W} Thanks everyone, 0 pips today

10:42:15 {chris} -10 gbp/chf. Thanks guys

10:42:43 {phil} lost 43 pips on gbp/chf-closed position on dow for 136 pips profit

10:43:26 {perry} cheers guys +28pips for the day

10:43:30 {Flash} Thanks All

10:43:30 {Bloom} Still learning. Thanks

10:43:36 {Peter_Fletcher} bye mixed morning all square

10:44:06 {Bill_K} -27 on £/$ but learnt a lot.

The FTSE was up this morning, with some investors returning ahead of the interest rate decision and the US non-farm payroll figures.  With the US closing down last night, buyers came back in anyway, despite the general feeling that UK interest rates will remain at 5% for the forseeable future, so to keep inflation at a manageable level.

Over the pond last night, the DJI closed down 12.37 at 12,390.48, whislt the S&P500 closed down nearly half a point at 1,377.2, and the Nasdaq down nearly 23 points at 2,503.14.

In the Far East today the Nikkei 225 index closed up 94.45 points at 14,341.12, whilst in Hong Kong the Hang Seng recently closed 132 points at 24,255.29.

With the UK housing market in a little bit of a lull, to say the least, luunchtime’s interest rate decision will be waited for with abated breath, although it seems everyone has resigned for another month, at least, of 5%. Halifax’s housing market survey showed a 2.4% fall in May, with further price falls expected.

Back here in the London stock market, it was the banks who were cojing back in favour.  The US private equity group, Texas Pacific, has given some life back to the sector as it tries to add to its B&B stake.  RBS was up 8p at 258p, whilst HBOS was up 10p at 350.5p, Barclays up 10p at 362p, and B&B up 2p at 70.5p.

Housebuilders also did well early doors, depsite interest rates looking like they’ll remain unchanged, with Bellway rising 12p to 606p despite saying there was a big slowdown, to the tune of 30% less reservations than last year at this time.  Peers also did well, with Bovis Homes up 12p to 4-quid, Redrow up 9p at 223p, Taylor Wimpey up a penny at 79p, and Persimmon up 12p at 467p.

B&Q owner Kingfishger was up 2.4p at 138.3p, whilst Argos owner Home Retail Group was up 10p at 248.5p, and Marks & Sparks up 6p at 386.5p.

Supermarket chain Morrisons was down 8p at 284p after saying sales were slower.

The miners were down, as metal prices fell. Lonmins was down 95p at 3,359p, whiuslt Anglo was down 70p at 3,331p, BHP down 35p at 1,865p, and Rio down 93p at 5,911.

Halfords was up 8p at 274p after some good results were posted this morning.

The FTSE closed down 87.6 poinst today at 5,970.1, which was up about 37 points from the day’s low, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 10 points at 9,976.9.

Over the pond, by the time London closed the DJI was actually up about 85 points at 12,488, wjilst the S&P500 was up 8 points at 1m385, and the Nasdaq up 34 points at 2,514.  The non-farm payroll figures cam ein better than expected, giving temporary relief from the woes of the banking sector, where Lehman Brothers said they are raising US$4 bln in a right issue.

Back here in London, it was the miners who were taking a bit of a psting as commodity metal prices were lower, as too was oil.  ENRC closed down 48p at 1,319, Kazakhmys down 66p at 1,670, Vedanta down 102p at 2,322, and Antofagastadown 14.5p at 674.5p.

AS mentioned, oil was off its recent highs, now around the US$124 bbl level, cauisng oil heavyweights to pull back somewhat.  BP closed down 23.5p at 581p, RD Shell down 60p at 2,024p, and BG Group closed down 35p at 1,230p.

Mind you, the fall in the price of the black stuff helped the airlines, with British Airways up 13p at just shy of 244p a share, having recovered from the recent lows quite well.  The airline announced longhaul premium traffic was slightly up from last year, but added that short haul premium and long haul non-premium traffic remained weak. This was still better than expected.  Its orange coloured peer, easyJet, closed up 19.5p at just shy of 315p on the back of its big competitor’s news, as well as the lower oil price of course.

As we mentioend this morning, some bigger stocks went ex-divvy, causing the yield equivalent in the shareprice to come out.  This took about 15 poiints off the FTSE level today.  Those going ex-div included: Vodafone, whioch closed down 8.1p at 154.65 and National Grid, which closed down 28.5p at 720p.

On to the financials, where the Lehman Bros news was taken hard.  Lehman fell 10% on the rights issue news, with many saying further bad news is to come elsewhere in the sector. UK banks were mainly down, with HBOS closing down over 11p at 340.5p,, and Barclays closing down over 8p at 352p.  But Alliance & Leicester was up over 12p at 412.5p as rumours that the US private equity group, Texas Pacific, will be looking to take positions in more UK banks that Bradford & Bingley.  RBS also did well, as Morgan Stanley upgraded the recently under pressure bank to ‘overweight’ from ‘underweight’, giving the sahres a needed boost of nearly 5p to 249.5p.

On to retail groups, where B&Q owner Kingfisher closed down nearly 3p at 135.9p despite being up this morning after reporting a better than expected 9% rise in 1st quarter profits.

Housebuilders had a poor day again, with Persimmons closing down over a penny at just shy of 455p after a UBS downgrade to ’sell’, Bellway down 9p to 594p, and Redrow down 9.25p at 214p.

Rumours of a management buyout at Rentokill saw the shares close up 2.5p at a quid a pop.

10:00:32 {rocwell} that was one of the easiest 85 pip gain in a while for me

10:10:57 {Monkey_Boy} 242 on two trades brilliant

13:53 {bob} have realised how to use 15min chart today after a comment from you today dan suddenly clicked in

10:16:37 {Geoff} made 124 pips so far this week BUT missed out on 167 because I bottled it, came out early and did’t exit using cci. Will use cci all the time in future.

10:17:15 {Lisa} 113 pips yesterday and still my first week

10:25:30 {Bloom} Lets hope for 12250. Still in from Monday, up 211 pips. Good call Monkey Boy.

10:25:37 {John} made 100 on dow yesterday monkey

10:31:20 {hemal} banked 80 gbpchf closed half

10:32:05 {rocwell} just the 85

<EN>} missed the boat today only 23pips going to leave it today to get my head right

10:42:58 {stuey} 18 pips another bad day

10:43:09 {FXcutter} 20 pips

10:43:09 {Geoff} +33 today on ej but came out early when trichet started to speak.+ 125 for week so far

10:43:16 {stuey} +18

10:43:23 {bob} missed todays fx trades but still short dow and dax

10:43:23 {Peter_W} No trades today. Missed the cable trade.

10:43:29 {Durti_Ca$h} 251 AND STILL ROLLING !

10:43:23 {Bloom} 0 pips today, I was like a rabbit in the headlights.

10:43:28 {nickmead<EN>} 35 pips EuroJpy

10:43:30 {Bill_K} +63 Short £/$

10:43:30 {Simon} 48 PIPS ON GBP/USD & STILL IN!

10:43:30 {Nicholas} +63 today but I was away alot

10:43:41 {gary555<EN>} +24 u/chf + 12 u/cad

10:43:43 {vikki} +30

10:43:45 {david_day<CY>} only 11 today

10:43:46 {barry} + 40 + 40 e/y £/y still on dow

10:43:47 {Tonyxx} I have got 80points today and still have some positions open

10:43:49 {Johnh<EN>} 46 0n g/y

10:43:54 {hemal} +90

10:44:01 {perry} +1!!! jumped in to late and had to wait on GBP/USD

10:44:23 {Justin_Jay<EN>} +42 on GBPUSD +76 on GBPJPY, but I trade half of my position on this pair, so +38. Unfortunatelly, lost 39 pips on two stupid trades (that shouldn’t happen) on USDCHF. So overall +41 pips. But still have an open GBPCHF position with around 60 pips right now

10:44:29 {gareth} 79 PTS TODAY 294 ROLLING FOR WEEK NO LOSSES

10:44:34 {Stefan<EN>} +18 missed the boat a bit- still in the money on the dow - very happy

10:44:46 {erakehi<SV>} 27p on gbp/chf trouble to come in the room

10:44:46 {barry} the day I stopped being greedy was the day I started making money

10:44:48 {andy} no trades today but had 45 pips on gold yes

terday afternoon plus another 90 on DOW

10:45:00 {FXcutter} 20 pips for me

10:45:59 {Tonyxx} I got 500 pips on the long term one, thanks

10:46:13 {Gazza} +182 pips, all out.

10:46:23 {Errol} L8tr guys took 10pips all good

10:46:25 {Monkey_Boy} 500 pips tony great work what were you trading!!

10:47:09 {chris} 58 pips today

10:47:12 {Gazza} +182, on £$, euryen, gbpjpy and Xau

10:47:35 {Durti_Ca$h} GREAT RECOVER FROM YEST !!! BRILLIANT

10:47:35 {Simon} WELL DONE!

10:47:56 {Gazza} See you guys tomorro, and thanks !!

10:49:21 {Durti_Ca$h} BEST MORNING FOR ME